Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Republicans, Circa November 3, 2004

It's not that I'm some new-age nitwit indulging in some kind of silly "creative visualization" (although, hmmmm, couldn't hurt, huh?) but I see a definitive Kerry victory in 6 days and I stand by Friday's prediction (except I'm adjusting it to Kerry 52% Bush 44% Nader 2% with the remainder given to the multitude of marginal candidates). Only a fool is banking on the polls this election (thus, the reliance by the nooze channels on irrational numbers), polling being much less accurate than in 2000. An eight-point spread might seem a little optmistic (Hunter S. Thompson is only giving Kerry five points but I think that's him being a safe gambler) and I have to admit I'd cut it back to six on anything less than a "gentleman's bet" but my gut is telling me eight. LIkewise, my gut tells me that it won't be November 3 (here in Colorado) by the time the media calls the election for Kerry.

If you think it's just some lame-brained liberal saying this, guess again. James Wolcott caught the trolls over at Faux News hammering out the talking points for spreading the blame over a Bush defeat, namely "liberal bias" in the media. Not just once (according to Wolcott*) but three times today, a trifecta that's just too delicious to disregard as "cautionary rumination". There are too many variables that aren't getting picked up by the polls or the gaseous blobs at CNN. Apparently, a few of the pundits at Faux News are astute enough to see that Bush has extended his streak of fucking up to its natural conclusion.

"Liberal media bias" is an easy and disingenuous scapegoat, its currency spent long ago with the Pop Rocks/soda pop/exploding stomach myth. Of course it will be the tune that the right will play ad nauseum from November 3rd onward and will continue to incoherently mumble even after everyone's told the right to shut its collective whiny mouth. Having kicked that horse's corpse to pieces, the right will start looking for another cadaver to abuse. It won't have to go farther than the nearest mirror.

The right's success in the past quarter century has been its ability to put aside philosophical differences for the sake of assimilating power under the blanket of the Republican Party. Such strange bedfellows had remarkable success during the past quarter century (even if most of the orgasms were faked) but a relationship founded on fundamental dishonesty is bound to fail. On November 3rd, the bickering will begin as blame moves from the "liberal media" straw man to who isn't getting it up in the Republican Party.

A few weeks ago, I took issue with Bruce Bartlett's comment in Ron Suskind's incredible NYT Sunday Magazine article, "if Bush wins, there will be a civil war in the Republican Party..." Obviously, I think the "civil war" will occur after a Bush defeat. Yes, "a battle between modernists and fundamentalists, pragmatists and true believers, reason and religion," certainly, but it will be as much as about blame as it will be about control for the soul of the GOP. When the question "What went wrong?" gets asked on November 3rd, "the liberal media" will be a footnote compared to the gothic saga that will follow.

My own prediction is that this election will reverberate beyond the Bush campaign. The millions of newly registered voters that are going to push Kerry several points past Bush are also going to (by and large) vote against incumbent Republicans. The sting of defeat will be far reaching. Not only will November 3rd mark the end of over 20 years of Republican momentum but will most likely lead to the kind of self-doubt and internal schism that has paralyzed the left for so many years.

*Wolcott also didn't see the babble on FNC as a concession - probably also a cautious gambler - but to his credit he's a fine writer with a quick mind and an iron constitution (obviously) if he's able to endure hours of Faux News without succumbing to some kind of catatonia.


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