Friday, October 22, 2004
Shrill Means...
I need a break... so a couple days vacation for me to recharge. Taking off this afternoon and I'll be back Sunday night.
I have no doubt that Kerry has won this election (whether or not Bush will steal it is another matter). My prediction on November 3 is Kerry 52%/Bush 45%/Nader 3%. Here's a couple of links to explain why:
Most College Students Favor Kerry - Harvard Poll
"Harvard's Institute of Politics found that 52 percent of all students want the Massachusetts senator elected president, 39 percent support Bush, and 8 percent are undecided."
Top 35 Trends That Say Kerry Will Win:
1) Bush must lead by 4%
2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon
3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster
4) Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States
5) PA Goes to Kerry
6) Seniors Favor Kerry
7) Kerry Appeals to Independents in the Debates
8) Kerry Appeals to independents... Period
9) New Standard for GOTV
10) Democrats Won the Registration Wars
- Debate Effect
11) Kerry Erased Doubts About Himself
12) Bush Increased Doubts About Himself
- Now (Election 2004) vs. Then (Election 2000)
13) Ralph Nader: Nader is less of an issue this year
14) Howard Dean: The Dean Revolution
15) Michael Moore: The 'Moore Effect' and Fahrenheit 911
16) George Soros
17) The 527's
18) Newspaper endorsements
19) The New Progressive Media
20) Better Informed Public
21) Better Educated Florida Electorate
22) Log Cabin Republicans
23) Arab Americans: Arab Americans are abandoning Bush
24) Cuban Americans
- Coattail Indicators
25) Senate Races: NON-incumbent Democrats strong in conservative strongholds
26) Conservative Strongholds: Some conservative strongholds are in play
27) Vote Banking
- Common Wisdom
28) The 50% Rule: incumbent is experiencing approval ratings below 50%
29) Right Track, Wrong Track
30) Incumbent Rule: 'Undecideds' break at least 60-40% for the challenger
31) Reelect: Bush's Reelect numbers are terrible
- Fire in the Belly
32) Rocketing Gas and Energy Prices
33) The Bush Draft
34) Expatriates: Non-military expatriates are motivated to remove Bush
35) The left is fired up!
Go to the link to see the reasoning here but I continue to say that, although we have a lot of work to do the next 11 days (I'm phone banking, canvassing, and providing rides to voters on Election Day), the wind is at our backs.
Have a great weekend... I'll be back here Sunday night!
I have no doubt that Kerry has won this election (whether or not Bush will steal it is another matter). My prediction on November 3 is Kerry 52%/Bush 45%/Nader 3%. Here's a couple of links to explain why:
Most College Students Favor Kerry - Harvard Poll
"Harvard's Institute of Politics found that 52 percent of all students want the Massachusetts senator elected president, 39 percent support Bush, and 8 percent are undecided."
Top 35 Trends That Say Kerry Will Win:
1) Bush must lead by 4%
2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon
3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster
4) Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States
5) PA Goes to Kerry
6) Seniors Favor Kerry
7) Kerry Appeals to Independents in the Debates
8) Kerry Appeals to independents... Period
9) New Standard for GOTV
10) Democrats Won the Registration Wars
- Debate Effect
11) Kerry Erased Doubts About Himself
12) Bush Increased Doubts About Himself
- Now (Election 2004) vs. Then (Election 2000)
13) Ralph Nader: Nader is less of an issue this year
14) Howard Dean: The Dean Revolution
15) Michael Moore: The 'Moore Effect' and Fahrenheit 911
16) George Soros
17) The 527's
18) Newspaper endorsements
19) The New Progressive Media
20) Better Informed Public
21) Better Educated Florida Electorate
22) Log Cabin Republicans
23) Arab Americans: Arab Americans are abandoning Bush
24) Cuban Americans
- Coattail Indicators
25) Senate Races: NON-incumbent Democrats strong in conservative strongholds
26) Conservative Strongholds: Some conservative strongholds are in play
27) Vote Banking
- Common Wisdom
28) The 50% Rule: incumbent is experiencing approval ratings below 50%
29) Right Track, Wrong Track
30) Incumbent Rule: 'Undecideds' break at least 60-40% for the challenger
31) Reelect: Bush's Reelect numbers are terrible
- Fire in the Belly
32) Rocketing Gas and Energy Prices
33) The Bush Draft
34) Expatriates: Non-military expatriates are motivated to remove Bush
35) The left is fired up!
Go to the link to see the reasoning here but I continue to say that, although we have a lot of work to do the next 11 days (I'm phone banking, canvassing, and providing rides to voters on Election Day), the wind is at our backs.
Have a great weekend... I'll be back here Sunday night!
