Monday, September 20, 2004

Bumper-Sticker Polling

Here, in one of the most Republican counties in the US, one would expect "W '04" or "Bush/Cheney '04" stickers thick as fallen fall foliage. El Paso county, Colorado is notoriously right wing and with the exception of largely Hispanic districts, monochromatically Republican. Given that, one would expect Dubya bumper stickers to outnumber Kerry stickers 6 to 1 (given the spread Bush had over Gore in El Paso county in 2000).

That's not the case - it's a dead heat (bumper-sticker wise) in a Republican stronghold - which I think appears to be real trouble for Bush. Even in my parent's neighborhood, a mere two miles from Focus on the Family and five miles from the Air Force Academy, Bush stickers barely outnumber Kerry stickers; in that neighborhood I'd expect Bush stickers on every other car and at best, a Kerry sticker every 10th car. Surprise, surprise, either Bush supporters are half as inclined to put bumper stickers on their car or Kerry supporters are twice as likely to put a sticker on their car but it looks as though the National polls are missing something.

I'd dismiss this notion about bumper stickers except that the polls are giving Ken Salazar an 11-point lead over Pete Coors in our Senate race. OK, I just said that the polls were wrong RE: Bush v. Kerry - so why would I pay attention to the Salazar v. Coors polls? Because it's been apparent since day one that, in a race between Salazar and Coors (State Attorney General against crappy-beer boy), Salazar had it locked up. Applying my bumper-sticker logic to the Senate race, the numbers add up. Even in El Paso county, the numbers of Salazar stickers far out-number the Coors stickers.

I may not be onto anything here but I couldn't be any less wrong than the polls for the Presidential race...


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